About 3 weeks ago I did an upgrade from Windows 10 to Windows 11. It seemed to go quite well. My MS-Office 365 worked fine. A week ago I bought a laptop with Windows 11, an i7 processor, and installed it on a network with my old computer. Next, I synced the computers. That did not seem to go so well. I now have lots of difficulties as somewhere in that process my menu’s in PowerPoint have changed, and I no longer have animation panes to create my Slay the Spider circles and the movement of the sectors. It has also caused problems in importing and exporting CSV files from my data sources.
My sincere apologies in not getting out a new StS circle this past couple of weeks. I am having to completely re-design how this works.
I am still don’t have the video’s working, For now and until I find the right solution it will have to suffice to show you last weeks circle and this weeks circle.
Last weeks circle
This weeks circle
My Stock Picks
Healthcare (Pick 4)
ISRG TDOC
TMO BEAM
DXCM XRAY
CRSP DHR
So far this year, it seems to be a direct reversal of what got beaten up in 2022 is now leading the pack, and vice-versa. I am buying or have bought 1/2 my intended position of the stocks in Bold Italics. The other 4 I like, but I am not buying.
Media/Communications )Pick 3)
ROKU NFLX
SHOP TWLO
DIS AMZN
I really like ROKU here after I learned that they streamed 59 billion hours of content last year, and Just signed a deal to add 2000 more hours of available content. I might be early on DIS but can’t miss out on owning it at this price point. Same with TWLO.
Technology (Pick 7)
I’m going pretty much all-in on software and semiconductors.
MSFT - because of Azure and ChatGPT
AMD - INTC just can’t seem to stop shooting themselves in the foot
CDNS - Best in class semi design software
ASML - Nobody in the world can get close to their technology
SNPS -
TSMC - World dominance in fabs capability
MDB DDOG
ADSK ADBE
CRM TEAM
Have you tried ChatGPT? Wow! That alone is worth buying MSFT. I am not a programmer but I can certainly tell you what I’d like to have programmed. I had gotten quotes on having programmers build something for me and bids well over $1000. I asked ChatGPT to give me a rather complex python program involving speech to audibles and replace a spreadsheet I had built and improved on for nearly a year and OpenAI ChatGPT delivered a marvelous result in a matter of minutes. It also produced 3 MP4 videos and stitched those together into 1 MP4. It worked on first try. Zero cost to me other than having someone help me install the necessary apps and show me how to add my accounts and passwords to use the dataabases I needed for which I was totally unfamiliar with.
ChatGPC is going to change the world in so many ways. It’s going to be disruptive to several industries and lower costs for many, many other industries.
Lawyers will be able to do research much faster. Instead of writing legal documents, they will instead mostly proofread what ChatGPT wrote for them. It should cut their costs by half or more.
Programmers will get replaced and it will become a job where there are too many programmers and thus, a lower paid skill except for the very best. They will always be in demand.
Consumer Discretionary (Pick 3)
ABNB CZR
RBLX RH
SHAK SBUX
TSLA
Financials (Pick 4)
JPM GS
MC V
PYPL PAYX
RPD SQ
Industrials (Pick 3)
WMS UAL
STL TOL
DOV BA
The Fed FOMC Meeting
The fed is likely going to be doing 2 more 0.25% rate hikes, then done. We got really lucky as both the US and Europe had very mild winters which decreased the expected demand for crude and Natgas. That alone has done more for whipping inflation than anything else that was intentionally done by anyone.
After the Fed meeting on 2/1, the markets soared to a point where we could see a short term top. The market is quite overbought right now.
I would go full on bullish on buying stocks right now except for one nagging point. Every bear market in history has bottomed out below 14x forward earnings. Most frequently in previous bottoms, the PE has been closer to 10x forward earnings, and some well under 10x. At the last low in October, we were at 18x forward earnings. I just don’t yet trust we have a bottom in place at 18x forward earnings.
I do have a Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, and not buying back into the markets early enough.
Let’s Go Get the Money
or at least keep what we have.
Hopefully, I will have my computer issues worked out very soon.
JimB
That i7 laptop screams. I’m very happy with that.