Happy New Year !
Wishing all of you a 2023 that will be better than 2022, good health, and successful efforts in your stock market endeavors.
Charts and Video
Video
12/23
12/30
We are getting closer and closer to capitulation levels. I ran a database query today on the 173 stocks that make up the S&P 100 and Nasdaq 100 (27 stocks are in both). Not surprisingly, the top 5 performances for 2022 were all oil and energy related stocks. On the bottom were the 3 EV automakers, Lucid (-83% YTD), Rivian (-83%), and Tesla (-68%). All 3 were down more than 35% in December while the S&P was -4.5% and Nasdaq -6.3%.
1-month chart…
If you want to see what capitulation looks like, look at the charts of those 3. Even Cathie Wood sold off Tesla this past week. Their problem is that when the total market gets to capitulation (probably in January), they will participate in that as well.
At the start of 2022, the biggest names were the FAANG stocks - Facebook (META), Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google. Here is how they performed vs the S&P and Nasdaq Composite.
The 1st to tumble was Netflix in January. Meta followed in February. Netflix took another big hit in April. Amazon got taken down a notch in May.
Everything got whacked in June, rebounded into mid-August, then slid down into October. Netflix then had a big rally and Amazon got whacked again. November saw a bit of a rally and then came December…
Meta (-1.3%) and Netflix (-6.0%) outperformed the S&P (-7%) and Nasdaq (-9.9%) by losing a little less. Apple (-13.8%), Google (-13.8%), and Amazon (-14.2%) didn’t fare so well. Tesla was even worse.
As I have stated previously, the big guns are usually the last to get hit in a bear market. Apple, Google, and Amazon tumbled after the 15th. Other big names like Microsoft and Salesforce are also getting hit now.
I think we will see a significant bottom very soon, and likely late this month. This is the longest stretch I have been out of the markets since I graduated college 43 years ago. It felt good sitting on the sidelines while the S&P and Nasdaq dropped 21% and 33% respectively, but it has become harder and harder to stay attentive without money invested.
Let’s hope I am right about the bottom being this month, and ‘23 becomes a huge winner for us.
Let’s Go Get the Money,
or at least keep what we have.
JimB