I'm a bit confused about your timing. Near the start you say "This means we need to get on board the supercycle during the downturn beginning this next week.", but nearer to the end you say "You can buy the companies I recommended here at this time if you have a long-term perspective. Personally, I am waiting for a bit, at least till the May or June Fed meetings to see what happens with interest rates."
And what are your thoughts about buying actual farmland, either via REITs like FPI and FARM, or through crowdsourcing platforms?
I always stress the importance of the stock market and sector influence on stocks prices. We've had a significant 3 week rally that is now fizzling out. I'm expecting the next market move will be down to the S&P 4200 level in the short term.
I do believe the super cycle is upon us, but I think prices on the companies I named will be lower over the next few weeks due to market influence. You could buy them here, and over the next 3-5 years you will make decent returns. Or, you can wait a few weeks and hope to buy them at prices about 10%-20% lower than now.
I have not thought much about buying farmland. It's not an area I have looked at much, and I think it's probably a surge now because of Bill Gates' purchases. Once the surge in interest is over, what's going to keep the buyers coming in?
In addition, farming is difficult during inflationary times. Potash and fertilizer prices will skyrocket (already happening), fuel costs are immense, and farming is a capital intensive business because the equipment life is not that long.
I'd much rather own a business where capital costs were high to get it to maturity, but ongoing the costs are not rising nearly as fast as inflation.
An example would be railroads. The land was granted. The tracks have been laid, but now just need maintenance. The railcars have been purchased, and now it's just replacements as needed.
Thanks Jim, very insightful.
I'm a bit confused about your timing. Near the start you say "This means we need to get on board the supercycle during the downturn beginning this next week.", but nearer to the end you say "You can buy the companies I recommended here at this time if you have a long-term perspective. Personally, I am waiting for a bit, at least till the May or June Fed meetings to see what happens with interest rates."
And what are your thoughts about buying actual farmland, either via REITs like FPI and FARM, or through crowdsourcing platforms?
Thanks,
Steve
I always stress the importance of the stock market and sector influence on stocks prices. We've had a significant 3 week rally that is now fizzling out. I'm expecting the next market move will be down to the S&P 4200 level in the short term.
I do believe the super cycle is upon us, but I think prices on the companies I named will be lower over the next few weeks due to market influence. You could buy them here, and over the next 3-5 years you will make decent returns. Or, you can wait a few weeks and hope to buy them at prices about 10%-20% lower than now.
I have not thought much about buying farmland. It's not an area I have looked at much, and I think it's probably a surge now because of Bill Gates' purchases. Once the surge in interest is over, what's going to keep the buyers coming in?
In addition, farming is difficult during inflationary times. Potash and fertilizer prices will skyrocket (already happening), fuel costs are immense, and farming is a capital intensive business because the equipment life is not that long.
I'd much rather own a business where capital costs were high to get it to maturity, but ongoing the costs are not rising nearly as fast as inflation.
An example would be railroads. The land was granted. The tracks have been laid, but now just need maintenance. The railcars have been purchased, and now it's just replacements as needed.